The DE Annex
***2023 Week 15 DE Annex***
Welcome to the fourth edition of the DE Annex! There are plenty of great resources out there for the top DE plays but where is the love for guys that are barely rostered and could be very useful if you are in a deep league or dealing with injuries or byes? Well, you can find them here in the Annex which should be especially useful this week given some big names that are out!
Each week, I use my DT formula to evaluate the full DE pool as well (full details on that methodology is available here). Overall, I've had some good success in predicting DE performance but while I get that model ready for prime time (and combination with DT for DL rankings) I thought I would share some lower stakes suggestions with all of you in the form of players rostered in less than 5% of leagues in MyFantasyLeague. Given about 17% of MFL leagues use IDP, these players should be available in roughly 70% of leagues.
Season-long metrics are available here but to summarize last week, I am pleased with the results of a 12.86 pt average with 4 of 6 picks ending as top 30 DE performers for the week. Since I started in Week 12, only 1 player has failed to score, 7 put up measly points, and 8 were viable starters, and 2 had great performances. Given this exercise is for very deep plays, time will tell if those numbers are good or bad!
Here are the 6 members of the DE Annex for Week 15 with some familiar faces and a few new entrants!
Baron Browning, DEN
The fact that Browning is rostered so little in MFL leagues is a head scratcher but as long as he is there we are going to use him. I have him as my DE15 overall this week with a great mix of talent and opportunity.
Yetur gross-matos, car
YGM has missed some time this season but has established himself as the clear DE2 in Carolina playing 71% of snaps last week. He has a serviceable 69.4 PFF Pass Rush grade and an opponent allowing the 4th most points to DEs over the last 5 weeks.
Anfernee Jennings, NEP
If it ain't broke...Jennings is the only 4-time suggestion but is still barely rostered. KC is not a great matchup for DEs but Jennings has the snaps, talent, and fantasy production to warrant consideration.
za'darius smith, CLE
Smith has disappointed mightily from a fantasy perspective (at least to this guy who drafted him heavily) but he still boasts the 13th best PFF pass rush grade for the season and faces a Bears team that has given up DE points in bunches as of late.
malcolm koonce, lv
To be candid, this one makes me the most nervous. It is clear Koonce is the second most talented DE in Vegas and he played as season high 61% snap share last week. Like Smith, he is on the right side of the rotation but it is a heavy rotation nonetheless.
ARDEN KEY, TEN
The Texans have not been allowing many boom games to DEs but they have allowed the 9th most fantasy points over the last 5 weeks making this a plus matchup. Potentially facing a much less mobile Davis Mills, Key might have a surprising ceiling.