DT Deep Dive

***2023 Week 1 Results***

Week 1 is in the books and I am continuing the tradition of evaluating myself every week against a variety of metrics (details on each metric and last season's results available here):

Overall, I am very pleased with my first ever Week 1 results. They are (mostly) on par with my season-long metrics last year and vastly outperformed my 2022 Week 2 results.

Performance by tier

Tier 1 outperformed Tier 2 which outperformed Tier 3 which outperformed Tier 4 in terms of average points, % of players scoring more than 10 points, and % of players scoring 0 points. 

Accuracy against projections

Just over half (53.85%) of recommended plays exceeded their FantasySharks projections with 33.33% of these correct calls more than doubling these projections and 5.13% of all recommendations laying a goose egg.

fantasy pros accuracy

Among my comparison group, I correctly identified the most Week 1 top 12 DT finishers (41.7%) and my top 12 had the highest average (22.46 pts) but the relative positioning of my top 12 hurt my "accuracy score".

***2023 Week 1 Rankings***

Full results for last season are available here. If you are curious how I reach my conclusions, details on my current model are available here.

Welcome back to your home for DT starts, sits, and streaming! We had a great year last season and I'm looking forward to seeing what 2023 brings. This will be the first time I am putting out Week 1 rankings and there will, admittedly, be more subjectivity this week than any other since there is no fresh data to utilize. Instead, the rankings are based primarily on last season with adjustments made for what I expect snap counts to look like this year and which matchups I expect will be more exploitable.

The Ideal Tier is guys you would start in any format (and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT).

The Solid Tier is players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group.

The Solid (Deeper) Tier is mostly going to be relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches.

Good luck!

Week 1 Deep DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)

2022 Season Long NPLB pts avg was 9.92.

D.J. Reader, CIN

Reader posted outstanding grades last year and an elite snap count but injuries made him finish as DT77 last season. Look more closely and you'll see he was DT44 in PPG with two injury-shortened games.

Dalvin Tomlinson, CLE

Tomlinson is a great pass rusher surrounded by great pass rushers with little snap competition. Plus they are playing a Bengals team with (another) re-worked OL and a 2022 top 10 pace of play.

Week 1 DT Rankings

Disclaimer 1: My model performed well last year, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially early in the season).

Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. I make small adjustments for guys with some injuries that I expect to influence snap counts but I default to 'how do I expect them to perform if they are healthy enough to play'.

Disclaimer 3: I am not a meteorologist, physicist, medical doctor, or turf scientist. My PhD is in Human Resource Management and I model performance based on past significant factors. Still, if some external factor makes you nervous, just pivot as there are many great options every week.

Disclaimer 4: No rookies allowed! Rookies (and vets who barely played last year) will be in the data eventually. I will add them to the model next week once I have some NFL usage and performance data to rely on.

Disclaimer 5: The data is noisy. There are more than a few FAs who snuck their way in but I cleaned up as many as possible and they are all in the avoid tier anyway so it is technically still good advice!


Here is the full list of 121 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.


TIER 1 - IDEAL

Aaron Donald LA

Dexter Lawrence II NYG

Jeffery Simmons TEN

Christian Wilkins MIA

DeForest Buckner IND

Derrick Brown CAR - Brown was a fantasy disappointment last year at DT28 but is still in a prime position to score given talent, opportunity, and how much the Panthers defense will likely be on the field.

Cameron Heyward PIT

Quinnen Williams NYJ

Jonathan Allen WAS


TIER 2 - SOLID

Zach Sieler MIA

Denico Autry TEN

Daron Payne WAS

D.J. Reader CIN

Dre'Mont Jones SEA

Kenny Clark GB

Zach Allen DEN

Deatrich Wise Jr. NE

Leonard Williams NYG

Javon Hargrave SF

Dalvin Tomlinson CLV

Alim McNeill DET - Long time readers know McNeill is a guy I just can't quit! He should be a fixture on the field and played well last season so I'm going to keep rolling with him...for now.


TIER 3 - SOLID (DEEPER LEAGUES)

B.J. Hill CIN

Bilal Nichols LV

Harrison Phillips MIN

Jarran Reed SEA

Osa Odighizuwa DAL

Nathan Shepherd NO - Shepherd has a great opportunity in NO with plenty of vacated snaps to fill. The question is how long he can hold off Bresee or if the Saints will pair the two together after being more of a DT rotational team in 2022.

Grover Stewart IND

Ed Oliver BUF

DaQuan Jones BUF

Vita Vea TB

Greg Gaines TB

Arik Armstead SF

Larry Ogunjobi PIT

Justin Madubuike BLT

Roy Robertson-Harris JAX

Fletcher Cox PHI

Dean Lowry MIN

Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC

Calais Campbell ATL

Andrew Billings CHI

Khyiris Tonga MIN


TIER 4 - AVOID (Many of the guys in this tier will likely move up next week but snap count uncertainty has me keeping them on the bench in week 1)

Shelby Harris CLV

Ta'Quon Graham ATL

Jordan Davis PHI

Milton Williams PHI

Christian Barmore NE

Teair Tart TEN

Maliek Collins HST

Abdullah Anderson WAS

Al Woods NYJ

Isaiah Buggs DET

Benito Jones DET

Chauncey Golston DAL

Marquise Copeland LA

Broderick Washington Jr. BLT

Sheldon Rankins HST

Grady Jarrett ATL

David Onyemata ATL

John Jenkins LV

DeMarcus Walker CHI

Adam Gotsis JAX

D.J. Jones DEN

Morgan Fox LAC

Montravius Adams PIT

James Lynch MIN

Solomon Thomas NYJ

Quinton Jefferson NYJ

Perrion Winfrey CLV

Jordan Elliott CLV

Bryan Mone SEA

Raekwon Davis MIA

Neville Gallimore DAL

Daniel Ekuale NE

Khalen Saunders NO

Malcolm Roach NO

Travis Jones BLT

Bravvion Roy BLT

Taven Bryan IND

Poona Ford BUF

Tim Settle BUF

Jordan Phillips BUF

Carlos Watkins ARZ

Shy Tuttle CAR

DeShawn Williams CAR

Hassan Ridgeway HST

Kurt Hinish HST

T.J. Slaton GB

Jerry Tillery LV

Mike Pennel Jr. CHI

Justin Jones CHI

Corey Peters JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi JAX

Mike Purcell DEN

Austin Johnson LAC

William Gholston TB

Kentavius Street PHI

Kerry Hyder Jr. SF

Kevin Givens SF

Armon Watts PIT

John Ridgeway WAS

Johnathan Hankins DAL

Lawrence Guy Sr. NE

Davon Godchaux NE

Jonah Williams LA

Brent Urban BLT

Kevin Strong ARZ

Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ

Leki Fotu ARZ

Roy Lopez HST

Timmy Horne ATL

Justin Ellis ATL

Josh Tupou CIN

Zach Carter CIN

A'Shawn Robinson NYG

Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG

Derrick Nnadi KC

Angelo Blackson JAX

Michael Dogbe JAX

Logan Hall TB

Breiden Fehoko PIT

Jonathan Bullard MIN