DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 11 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 11 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Some rookies crack tier 2 for the first time and a few vets slip to deeper play territory this week.
I'm generally happy with the model but it could be better (more on that below). For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 29% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified and second in terms of avg pts, but are a distant third in FantasyPros-style accuracy. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a correlation of .408 with performance so I am not changing a thing!
Week 11 features 43 recommended plays and another 69 rated for true degenerates.
Good luck!
Week 11 DT Streamers (outside the top 38 rostered on MFL)
Week 10- D.J. Reader (11.5) and Arik Armstead (13.35), Season-long average at 15.0.
Kobie Turner, LAR
Turner may not be a household name like his running mate but the rookie boasts the 14th best run defense grade on PFF. Add in a respectable pass rush grades and a most recent snap share of 86% and he looks like a nice option this week.
Keannu Benton, PIT
Another rookie makes the list this week as Benton has seen stable snap shares in the mid-60s despite the return of Cam Heyward and boasts the 13th best pass rush grade in the NFL this season (PFF).
Week 11 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 116 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG - Might not be as heralded among casual IDP players, but Lawrence leads all DT with 46 pressures this season.
Quinnen Williams NYJ
Chris Jones KC
Aaron Donald LA
Derrick Brown CAR
Zach Allen DEN
Christian Wilkins MIA
Jalen Carter PHI - Let's hope Carter plays closer to 68% of snaps (Week 9) rather than 24% (Week 8). The talent is driving the ranking here but if you need a high floor, you might look elsewhere.
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Jeffery Simmons TEN
Jonathan Allen WAS
Alim McNeill DET
Javon Hargrave SF
Justin Madubuike BLT - Madubuike is having a breakout season after multiple appearances on the streamer list last season and draws a favorable matchup this week against Cincy.
Kobie Turner LA
Keeanu Benton PIT
D.J. Reader CIN - Reader is putting up great grades that are just not translating to fantasy success. The uncertainty on the D-Line and a tough matchup for DTs in Baltimore this week drops him down the list slightly.
Zach Sieler MIA
Kenny Clark GB
Jarran Reed SEA
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Harrison Phillips MIN
Vita Vea TB
B.J. Hill CIN
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Maliek Collins HST
Ed Oliver BUF
Leonard Williams SEA - So far so good in Seattle as Williams is already Jarran Reed's primary running mate.
Fletcher Cox PHI
Calijah Kancey TB - Kancey's abysmal run defense grade (35.4) is a limiting factor considering his pass rush of 67.8 is solid but far from elite.
Bilal Nichols LV
Arik Armstead SF
Daron Payne WAS - Payne has averaged only 7 NPLB fantasy points per game over the last 3 but draws a favorable matchup against the Giants. There are likely better options this week but don't bail on Payne just yet.
Sheldon Rankins HST
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Denico Autry TEN
John Jenkins LV
Jihad Ward NYG
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Justin Jones CHI
Michael Pierce BLT
D.J. Jones DEN
T.J. Slaton GB
Cameron Heyward PIT - Until Heyward starts playing more consistent snaps (55% and 59% in his two games back), he is a high floor play but his ceiling will be capped most weeks.
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Maurice Hurst CLV - PFF's 8th highest graded DT this season just can't get enough snaps to be relied upon failing to crack 50% once yet this season.
Jonah Williams LA
Nick Williams LAC
Austin Johnson LAC
Chauncey Golston DAL
Milton Williams PHI
Javon Kinlaw SF
Kevin Strong ARZ
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Shelby Harris CLV
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Dante Stills ARZ
Travis Jones BLT
Mazi Smith DAL
Armon Watts PIT
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Teair Tart TEN
Kevin Givens SF
Andrew Billings CHI
Morgan Fox LAC
Devonte Wyatt GB
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Jordan Davis PHI
Jerry Tillery LV
Adam Butler LV
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
Benito Jones DET
Neville Gallimore DAL
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT
Montravius Adams PIT
Shy Tuttle CAR
DeShawn Williams CAR
Kyle Peko TEN
Mike Purcell DEN
John Ridgeway WAS
Adam Gotsis JAX
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Kurt Hinish HST
Khalil Davis HST
John Cominsky DET
Zacch Pickens CHI
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Tim Settle BUF
Jordan Phillips BUF
Zach Carter CIN
LaBryan Ray CAR
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Colby Wooden GB
Karl Brooks GB
Jordan Elliott CLV
Mike Greene TB
William Gholston TB
Greg Gaines TB
Logan Hall TB
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
Roy Lopez ARZ
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Nick Thurman CAR
Jonathan Harris DEN
Leki Fotu ARZ
Raekwon Davis MIA
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Dean Lowry MIN
Tershawn Wharton KC
Derrick Nnadi KC
Angelo Blackson JAX
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX