DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 17 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 17 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Good luck in your championship. I'll wait to see on a Week 18 edition but I'm leaning towards one last run next week!
I'm generally happy with the model but it can always be improved. For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all but one blip in terms of Tier 2 % over 10 pts. Accuracy against projections sits at 66.24% with a 31.49% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are just behind "Expert X" in terms of avg pts, % of top players identified, and FantasyPros-style accuracy but ahead of FantasySharks in all three categories. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a solid correlation of .341. I will continue to make slight adjustments for players dealing with/returning from injuries including downstream implications.
We have 48 viable plays this week with a very deep streaming crowd.
Good luck!
Week 17 DT Streamers (less than 3% rostered on MFL)
Week 16 - Maliek Collins (11.75) and Dalvin Tomlinson (3.5), Season-long average at 13.04.
Nathan Shepherd, NO
Swinging for the fences with both of these plays since if you are streaming in the championship, you like to take risks! Shepherd has some snap count volatility but boasts a 76.9 PFF pass rush grade and faces an opponent who has given up the 4th most fantasy points to DTs since Week 12.
Shelby Harris, CLE
Harris is another guy in a 3 man rotation with a great matchup this weeks as the Jets have given up the most fantasy points to DTs over the past 5 weeks. Harris boasts the 27th highest overall PFF grade for DTs this season and is mostly held back by his (fantasy-irrelevant) coverage grade.
Week 17 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this late in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. We are waiting on some big returns (Simmons, Hargrave, Onyemata) and I have projected snaps as if they are playing.
Here is the full list of 121 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
KEY: RD = Ideal Run Defense Grade, PR = Ideal Pass Rush Grade, MU = Ideal Match-Up, SP = Ideal Snap Share
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Aaron Donald LA (PR, SS)
Derrick Brown CAR (SS)
Quinnen Williams NYJ (RD, MU)
Christian Barmore NE (PR, SS)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG (RD, PR)
Chris Jones KC (PR)
Christian Wilkins MIA (SS)
Javon Hargrave SF (PR, MU)
Zach Allen DEN (MU)
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Denico Autry TEN (MU, SS)
Jonathan Allen WAS (MU)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
DeForest Buckner IND (PR)
Justin Madubuike BLT
Leonard Williams SEA
Zach Sieler MIA (SS)
Ed Oliver BUF (MU)
Jarran Reed SEA (SS)
Kenny Clark GB (SS)
Daron Payne WAS (MU)
Kobie Turner LA
Calais Campbell ATL
B.J. Hill CIN Â
Fletcher Cox PHI (MU)
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Cameron Heyward PIT
David Onyemata ATL
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Nathan Shepherd NO
Javon Kinlaw SF (MU)
Khalen Saunders NO
D.J. Jones DEN (MU)
Grover Stewart IND
Shelby Harris CLV
Zach Carter CIN
Harrison Phillips MIN
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Calijah Kancey TB (MU)
Arik Armstead SF (PR, MU)
Sheldon Rankins HST
Justin Jones CHI (MU)
Austin Johnson LAC
Vita Vea TB (MU)
Solomon Thomas NYJ (MU)
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Maliek Collins HST
Devonte Wyatt GB
Jalen Carter PHI (MU)
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Jordan Davis PHI (MU)
Roy Lopez ARZ (MU)
Bobby Brown III LA
Dante Stills ARZ (MU)
Armon Watts PIT
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Andrew Billings CHI (MU)
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX (MU)
Kevin Strong ARZ (MU)
Benito Jones DET (MU)
Keeanu Benton PIT
Jerry Tillery LV
Michael Pierce BLT
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
John Cominsky DET (MU)
T.J. Slaton GB
Shy Tuttle CAR
Bryan Bresee NO
Keion White NE
Milton Williams PHI (MU)
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX (MU)
Adam Gotsis JAX (MU)
Kevin Givens SF (MU)
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI (MU)
John Jenkins LV
Chauncey Golston DAL
Adam Butler LV
D.J. Davidson NYG
Mazi Smith DAL
Travis Jones BLT
Brent Urban BLT
Karl Brooks GB
Khalil Davis HST
Teair Tart HST
Taven Bryan IND
Jordan Elliott CLV
Isaiah Buggs DET (MU)
William Gholston TB (MU)
Tim Settle BUF (MU)
Zacch Pickens CHI (MU)
Logan Hall TB (MU)
Davon Godchaux NE
Mike Purcell DEN (MU)
Greg Gaines TB (MU)
John Ridgeway III WAS (MU)
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ (MU)
Nick Williams LAC
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Neville Gallimore DAL
Montravius Adams PIT
Morgan Fox LAC
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Nick Thurman CAR
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
Raekwon Davis MIA
Colby Wooden GB
Angelo Blackson JAX (MU)
Josh Tupou CIN
Tershawn Wharton KC
DeShawn Williams CAR
Jonah Williams LA
Larrell Murchison LA
Kurt Hinish HST
Jonathan Harris DEN (MU)
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX (MU)
Bilal Nichols LV
Jihad Ward NYG
LaBryan Ray CAR
Albert Huggins ATL
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Derrick Nnadi KC