DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 18 Rankings***
Don't take this the wrong way, but I hope very few people read this... I am not a fan of Week 18 finals (combined 17/18 and/or best ball are not quite as bad). Still, if you are reading this, hopefully I can help you win yourself a championship!
I'll do a season end recap of the model performance next week but I am generally pleased with the results and confident enough that I'll continue dispensing advice! Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. One significant adjustment this week, if a player's team has nothing to play for, I added a deduction in my model since there are likely going to be unreliable snap counts for these guys. I also slightly adjusted the backups in these situations but not as significantly as I did for the starter penalties.Â
In the end, we are left with 47 viable plays this week and many big names being as low as they will ever be for me!
Good luck!
Week 18 DT Streamers (less than 3% rostered on MFL)
Week 17 - Nathan Shepherd (5.5) and Shelby Harris (11), Season-long average at 12.79.
Larry Ogunjobi, PIT
The Steelers have a lot to play for and you can do much worse than a motivated player coming off an 80% snap share with serviceable grades and a slight plus matchup! While Ogunjobi is not in a contract year, his cap hit triples next season so he may be auditioning for his next team this week.
Milton Williams, PHI
Philly relies on a rotation that makes any player difficult to trust but given no team has allowed more fantasy pts to DTs over the past 5 weeks than the Giants and the idea that this might be a blowout could give Williams plenty of opportunities.
Week 18 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this late in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. I just saw Jonathan Allen is hurt and questionable (seemingly out of nowhere).
Here is the full list of 123 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
KEY: RD = Ideal Run Defense Grade, PR = Ideal Pass Rush Grade, MU = Ideal Match-Up, SP = Ideal Snap Share
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Derrick Brown CAR (RD, SS)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG(RD, PR)
Quinnen Williams NYJ (RD)
Leonard Williams SEA (SS)
Christian Barmore NE (PR)
Christian Wilkins MIA (SS)
David Onyemata ATL (MU)
Calais Campbell ATL (MU)
Cameron Heyward PIT (SS)
DeForest Buckner IND (PR, MU)
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Kobie Turner LA (MU, SS)
Aaron Donald LA (PR, MU, SS)
Jarran Reed SEA (SS)
Zach Sieler MIA (SS)
Kenny Clark GB (SS)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Jonathan Allen WAS(MU)
Ed Oliver BUF
Denico Autry TEN
B.J. Hill CIN
Zach Allen DEN
Daron Payne WAS (MU)
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Larry Ogunjobi PIT (SS)
Vita Vea TB
Chris Jones KC (PR, MU)
Javon Hargrave SF (PR, MU)
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Justin Madubuike BLT
Maliek Collins HST
Raekwon Davis MIA
Milton Williams PHI
Justin Jones CHI
John Cominsky DET
Harrison Phillips MIN
Khalil Davis HST
Travis Jones BLT
Fletcher Cox PHI
Davon Godchaux NE
Grover Stewart IND (MU)
Keion White NE
Nathan Shepherd NO (MU)
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Devonte Wyatt GB
Jalen Carter PHI
Jordan Davis PHI
Logan Hall TB
Calijah Kancey TB
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Bryan Bresee NO (MU)
Javon Kinlaw SF (MU)
Jerry Tillery LV
John Jenkins LV
Shy Tuttle CAR
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Dante Stills ARZ
Jonathan Bullard MIN
D.J. Jones DEN
Sheldon Rankins HST
Morgan Fox LAC
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Keeanu Benton PIT
Kevin Strong ARZ
Andrew Billings CHI
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
Adam Gotsis JAX
Taven Bryan IND (MU)
Khalen Saunders NO (MU)
Arik Armstead SF (PR, MU)
Teair Tart HST
Adam Butler LV
D.J. Davidson NYG
Armon Watts PIT
Nick Thurman CAR
DeShawn Williams CAR
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Shelby Harris CLV
Chauncey Golston DAL
Mazi Smith DAL
Karl Brooks GB
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Jaleel Johnson TEN
Austin Johnson LAC
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Ta'Quon Graham ATL (MU)
Eric Johnson II IND (MU)
Bobby Brown III LA (MU)
John Ridgeway III WAS (MU)
Michael Pierce BLT
Josh Tupou CIN
Mike Purcell DEN
Nick Williams LAC
Montravius Adams PIT
Roy Lopez ARZ
Tim Settle BUF
Zacch Pickens CHI
Neville Gallimore DAL
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Isaiah Buggs DET
T.J. Slaton GB
Colby Wooden GB
William Gholston TB
Greg Gaines TB
LaBryan Ray CAR
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX
Kevin Givens SF (MU)
Albert Huggins ATL (MU)
Zach Carter CIN
Jonathan Harris DEN
Kurt Hinish HST
Scott Matlock LAC
Bilal Nichols LV
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Benito Jones DET
Tershawn Wharton KC (MU)
Jihad Ward NYG
Sebastian Joseph-Day SF (MU)
Brent Urban BLT
Jordan Elliott CLV
Derrick Nnadi KC (MU)
Jonah Williams LA (MU)
Larrell Murchison LA (MU)
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT