DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 9 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Back to byes this week but there is still a very strong pool but there have been some DT trades and injuries to keep things exciting.
I'm generally happy with the model but it could be better (more on that below). For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 31% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified, are second in terms of avg pts, and still in third for FantasyPros accuracy. This week was a particularly tough pill to swallow in terms of that last metric since "Expert X" only ranked 15 DTs and my DT16 was DT16 for the week which would have been a very nice boost! Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. After some slight edits last week metrics met or exceeded virtually every metric so so more changes for now (although I will revisit in a few weeks).
Week 9 features 44 recommended plays with some new names moving up the board and some slight fades on some Tier 1 staples.Â
Good luck!
Week 9 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)
Week 8- David Onyemata (13.5) and Arik Armstead (32.3), Season-long average at 13.9.
David Onyemata, ATL
Onyemata is still only rostered in 3% of MFL leagues making him tied for the 32nd most rostered DT and keeping him eligible here. He has been about as consistent of a DT producer as you could ask for in 2023 and should see solidified snap shares now that Grady Jarrett is on IR.
John Jenkins, LV
Jenkins has quietly been putting together a nice season with double-digit fantasy points in each of the last 6 weeks. Back-to-back weeks at 69% snap share and PFF grades above 65 for run and 75 for pass defense land him as a solid streaming option for Week 9.
Week 9 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 113 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG
Christian Wilkins MIA
David Onyemata ATL - I know this might be a bit high, but the metrics and opportunity point to a continuing breakout year for Onyemata.
Quinnen Williams NYJ
Chris Jones KC
Derrick Brown CAR - Brown played the highest snap share pf any DT last week at 90%. That kind of opportunity is what lands him this high this week.
Aaron Donald LA
DeForest Buckner IND
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Daron Payne WAS
Jeffery Simmons TEN - Got tagged with a late Questionable status and plays on TNF. Monitor but if he plays, play him over almost anyone!
B.J. Hill CIN - Hill has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective and from a PFF metric standpoint this year but is a fixture on the Bengals D-Line and has a good enough pass rush grade to warrant a start in most DT-required leagues.
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Jonathan Allen WAS
Zach Sieler MIA
Kenny Clark GB
Calais Campbell ATL
John Jenkins LV
Harrison Phillips MIN
Michael Pierce BLT - It is easy to only notice Madubuike's breakout season but Pierce is earning an equal snap share and has better grades on the season landing him above his teammate this week.
Maliek Collins HST
Fletcher Cox PHI - I would downgrade a bit if Davis is healthy but among the Eagles rotation, Cox is still a fixture and solid play especially this week against a Dallas O-Line that gives up the 3rd most points to DTs.
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
T.J. Slaton GB - I'm more of a fan of Wyatt long-term but these past few weeks, Slaton has emerged as Clarks primary running mate and has made the most of his opportunity last week with 9 total tackles (2 for loss).
Jihad Ward NYG
Denico Autry TEN - I am about the lowest you will find on Autry and it is due to his grades which he has been outperforming from a fantasy perspective. He is still a play and I get riding the hot hand but he feels due for some negative regression.
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Christian Barmore NE
Davon Godchaux NE
Ed Oliver BUF - I'm assuming the Bills were playing it safe last week with Oliver's snaps given he was dinged heading into the game. If he gets close to his typical snap share he has an exploitable matchup this week against the Bengals.
Greg Gaines TB
Leonard Williams SEA
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Montravius Adams PIT
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Justin Madubuike BLT
D.J. Reader CIN
Keion White NE - White is incredibly talented and looks like he is getting an opportunity in NE but the pending return of Uche to the D-Line (and NE headaches in general) puts his playing time in question.
Jarran Reed SEA
Milton Williams PHI
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Jalen Carter PHI - If he seems 100% boost him to near the top of this tier despite being in a rotation...he is that good.
Jerry Tillery LV
Vita Vea TB
Maurice Hurst CLV - Hurst is the 6th overall rated DT on PFF but still playing less than 50% of snaps for the Browns. Usually, if you are playing less than 50% you are in Tier 4 (snaps matter THAT much) but he is a rare exception I would roll the dice on in deep DT required leagues.
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Justin Jones CHI
Adam Butler LV
Bryan Bresee NO
Calijah Kancey TB
Kobie Turner LA
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Bilal Nichols LV
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Malcolm Roach NO
Derrick Nnadi KC
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Khalen Saunders NO
Nathan Shepherd NO
Shy Tuttle CAR
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Devonte Wyatt GB
Andrew Billings CHI
Chauncey Golston DAL
Broderick Washington BLT
Keeanu Benton PIT
Taven Bryan IND
Kevin Strong ARZ
Jordan Davis PHI
Bobby Brown III LA
Zacch Pickens CHI
Austin Johnson LAC
Teair Tart TEN
Travis Jones BLT
Armon Watts PIT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Eric Johnson IND
Jonah Williams LA
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Morgan Fox LAC
Nick Williams LAC
Khalil Davis HST
Sheldon Rankins HST
Kurt Hinish HST
Shelby Harris CLV
Jordan Elliott CLV
Jordan Phillips BUF
William Gholston TB
Logan Hall TB
Mike Greene TB
DeShawn Williams CAR
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Zach Carter CIN
Josh Tupou CIN
Dante Stills ARZ
Colby Wooden GB
Karl Brooks GB
Neville Gallimore DAL
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Mazi Smith DAL
Kyle Peko TEN
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Dean Lowry MIN
Leki Fotu ARZ
Scott Matlock LAC
Tim Settle BUF
Nick Thurman CAR
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
Raekwon Davis MIA
Al Woods NYJ
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Tershawn Wharton KC
John Ridgeway WAS
DeMarvin Leal PIT