DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 8 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Hopefully your teams thrived in the face of byemaggedon and you are looking forward to Week 8 where every team will be playing once again!
I'm generally happy with the model but it could be better (more on that below). For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 with only one exception (% over 10pts in Tier 2). Accuracy against projections sits at 67% with a 30% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified, are second in terms of avg pts, and still in third for FantasyPros accuracy. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
It is time for our first methodology update of the season! Full details are available here but the gist of it is I have given up the ghost on trying to model DT matchups and am using opponent average fantasy points allowed to DTs as a marker of an exploitable opponent. The second change is that I have noticed the raw run defense grades are vastly outperforming my two-tiered coding scheme and so I have increased the threshold for max points in my model but added an in-between for players putting up solid grades.
Week 8 features about a very chalky Tier 1 but things get spicy in a very deep Tier 2 and there are some great upside plays in Tier 3.Â
Good luck!
Week 8 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)
Week 7- David Onyemata (21.25) and Alim McNeil (5.25), Season-long average at 12.5.
David Onyemata, ATL
Onyemata is still only rostered in 3% of MFL leagues making him tied for the 32nd most rostered DT and keeping him eligible here. The snap count dipped a bit last week but he still registered a sack and remains a great streaming option.
Arik Armstead, SF
Armstead is now posting a snap share that boosts him in the rankings and makes him a viable streaming option. Good grades and a plus matchup against the Bengals this week make him a very viable DT streamer.
Week 8 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 124 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG
Aaron Donald LA
Chris Jones KC
Quinnen Williams NYJ
Christian Wilkins MIA
Jeffery Simmons TEN
DeForest Buckner IND
Ed Oliver BUF - Oliver plays in TNF and is still questionable as of this writing. If he plays, he has a great matchup but (as with any player coming off injury) feel free to proceed with caution!
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Leonard Williams NYG - Williams' play has been steadily returning to form and he faces TB this week which allows the 7th most points per game to DTs.
D.J. Reader CIN
Calais Campbell ATL - While teammate Onyemata has been a revelation and Jarrett has largely been a disappointment, Campbell is one of the most balanced players with grades above 67 in pass and rush defense and played 68% of snaps last week.
Javon Hargrave SF
Arik Armstead SF
Jonathan Allen WAS - I'll be honest, I would start Allen over a few of the names listed above but the data suggests that Allen might not be as strong of a play as usual this week.
Daron Payne WAS
Kenny Clark GB
David Onyemata ATL
Osa Odighizuwa DAL - Osa cracked a 60% snap share for the first time in Week 6 before the bye. Here's hoping his share maintains (or grows) since he is clearly the most talented DT in DAL.
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Kobie Turner LA - It's been a challenge to predict who will be Aaron Donald's primary running mate but turner outsnapped and outplayed Jonah Williams last week and has an exploitable matchup against the Cowboys who give up the 5th most fantasy points to DTs for the season.
John Jenkins LV
Fletcher Cox PHI
Derrick Brown CAR - I may be a bit low on Brown this week but he is still a solid play with a good bit of upside if his snap shares return to their pre-Week 6 levels.
Zach Sieler MIA
Zach Allen DEN
Justin Madubuike BLT
Alim McNeill DET
Jarran Reed SEA
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Denico Autry TEN
Maliek Collins HST
B.J. Hill CIN
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Montravius Adams PIT
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Christian Barmore NE - Barmore (and Wise) have the 5th worst matchup for DTs this week. I am still a big fan long terms and he is trending in the right direction this season but there are likely better plays this week.
Logan Hall TB
Harrison Phillips MIN
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Dean Lowry MIN - While Phillips gets all the love, Lowry and Bullard both played 70% or more snaps last week. While none had a great game all three had 9+ NPLB points and could be used in deeper leagues.
Jerry Tillery LV
Justin Jones CHI
Benito Jones DET
Nathan Shepherd NO
Vita Vea TB - Vea's usage rate came back to earth last week at 55% after back to back weeks topping 60%. He is posting solid but not stellar grades on defense and should be a reliable play in deeper leagues.
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Grady Jarrett ATL
John Cominsky DET
Jordan Davis PHI - A great match for Eagles DTs this week. Cox is most likely to score due to his snap share but Davis plays a good bit and Carter (below) has the talent to put up points in limited snaps. The future is very bright for Eagles DTs but who to play will remain murky with 3 (or 4 if you count Williams) guys all competing for snaps.
Jalen Carter PHI
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Denico Autry TEN
Maliek Collins HST
B.J. Hill CIN
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Montravius Adams PIT
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Christian Barmore NE
Logan Hall TB
Harrison Phillips MIN
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Dean Lowry MIN
Jerry Tillery LV
Justin Jones CHI
Benito Jones DET
Nathan Shepherd NO
Vita Vea TB
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Grady Jarrett ATL
John Cominsky DET
Jordan Davis PHI
Jalen Carter PHI
Maurice Hurst CLV
Keeanu Benton PIT
Tim Settle BUF
Milton Williams PHI
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
T.J. Slaton GB
Jonah Williams LA
Kevin Strong ARZ
Malcolm Roach NO
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Shy Tuttle CAR
Kevin Givens SF
DeShawn Williams CAR
Javon Kinlaw SF
Sheldon Rankins HST
Michael Pierce BLT
Isaiah Buggs DET
Devonte Wyatt GB
Mike Purcell DEN
Chauncey Golston DAL
Armon Watts PIT
Bobby Brown III LA
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Morgan Fox LAC
Jordan Phillips BUF
Khalen Saunders NO
Khalil Davis HST
Teair Tart TEN
Travis Jones BLT
Bilal Nichols LV
Andrew Billings CHI
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Taven Bryan IND
Eric Johnson IND
Nick Thurman CAR
Raekwon Davis MIA
Adam Butler LV
Nick Williams LAC
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Kyle Peko TEN
Bryan Bresee NO
Kurt Hinish HST
Shelby Harris CLV
Keion White NE
D.J. Jones DEN
Neville Gallimore DAL
Colby Wooden GB
Zach Carter CIN
Karl Brooks GB
Greg Gaines TB
Jordan Elliott CLV
Broderick Washington BLT
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Zacch Pickens CHI
Mike Greene TB
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Al Woods NYJ
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Scott Matlock LAC
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Austin Johnson LAC
Dante Stills ARZ
Adam Gotsis JAX
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
Jonathan Harris DEN
Tershawn Wharton KC
Angelo Blackson JAX
John Ridgeway WAS
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX
Leki Fotu ARZ
Derrick Nnadi KC
Davon Godchaux NE
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE