DT Deep Dive

***2023 Week 3 Results***

With Week 3 behind us, let's look back and see how the rankings performedis in the books and I am continuing the tradition of evaluating myself every week against a variety of metrics (details on each metric and last season's results available here):

In what was a relatively down week for DT scoring, the rankings still performed admirably hitting new season highs in a variety of metrics such as the boom rate in the Solid (Deeper) Tier, the gap between Tier 3 and Tier 4 in all measures, and highest massive hit rate against projections.


PERFORMANCE BY TIER

The gaps between the Tier 2 (Solid) and Tier 3 (Solid-Deeper) were not as pronounced as I would have liked but the overall pattern only had one anomaly (highest boom rate across all picks was in Tier 3). 

ACCURACY AGAINST PROJECTIONS

Very happy to be back up over 60% overall and a massive hit rate above 30%. This week also saw a season-low in whiffs (recommended plays who put up a 0). 

FANTASY PROS ACCURACY

This was a difficult top group to project across the board with myself, Expert X, and FantasySharks all posting our worst performances. In a week like this, I'm just happy not to finish last in any category!

***2023 Week 3 Rankings***

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of the DT Deep Dive! We are off to a strong start with the Ideal (20.15) and Solid (14.83) Tiers scoring well and the Solid (Deeper) Tier outperforming Avoids in several key metrics (% of players over 10 pts, 20 pts, and avoiding 0s).  Recommended plays across all tiers are outperforming projections nearly 60% of the time with an almost 25% massive hit rate. Finally, my ratings are outperforming  both "Expert X" and FantasySharks across 2 of 3 accuracy measures. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.

Moving into Week 3, I am still mixing historical data with the small sample from this season while also looking for more relevant team and opponent metrics. Starting next week, I'll run some regression analyses to see what is working better or worse and adjust variables but one more week of running this hybrid of last year's model mixed with some new insights. Again this week I highlight potentially surprising names in Tiers 1 and 2 and provide commentary on risers and fallers in Tiers 3 and 4.

Ideal Tier is guys you would start in any format (and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT).

Solid Tier is players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group.

Solid (Deeper) Tier is mostly going to be relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches.

Avoid Tier is mostly players who did not have strong enough snap counts in Week 1 to warrant consideration in leagues other than Best Ball that you are managing in-season.

Good luck!

Week 3 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)

Week 2 - Harrison Phillips (39.1) and Justin Madubuike (3.5), Season-long average at 13.9.

Harrison Phillips, MIN

I expect his rostership will see a bump very soon but he's still only the 31st most rostered DT on MFL. A very productive first two weeks thanks to a great run defense grade and high tackle floor.

D.J. Reader, CIN

Despite the slow start, I'm still a believer in the talent and the snap count is there to consider Reader a viable streamer particularly against a Rams front with some holes and a high pace of play so far in 2023.

Week 3 DT Rankings

Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).

Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year week. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.

Here is the full list of 163 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.


TIER 1 - IDEAL

Dexter Lawrence II NYG - Possibly a surprise at Number 1 this week but Lawrence has 10 pressures with 0 sacks this year and is due for some positive regression.

Jeffery Simmons TEN

Chris Jones KC

Derrick Brown CAR

Aaron Donald LA

Jonathan Allen WAS

Quinnen Williams NYJ


TIER 2 - SOLID

Harrison Phillips MIN

Christian Wilkins MIA

DeForest Buckner IND

Daron Payne WAS

Zach Allen DEN

D.J. Reader CIN

Kenny Clark GB

David Onyemata ATL - Rotation in ATL is still a bit concerning but the high quality of play for Onyemata in 2023 makes him a solid option and slightly preferred over teammate Jarrett.

Grady Jarrett ATL

B.J. Hill CIN

Vita Vea TB


TIER 3 - SOLID (DEEPER LEAGUES)

Denico Autry TEN

Javon Hargrave SF - Hargrave has yet to put up the elite pass rushing metrics from last season but has a favorable matchup this week against a Giants front that is among the early season leaders in pressures allowed.

Arik Armstead SF

Dalvin Tomlinson CLV

Fletcher Cox PHI

Dre'Mont Jones SEA

Roy Robertson-Harris JAX

Deatrich Wise Jr. NE

Byron Young LV

Kevin Strong ARZ

Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ

Zach Sieler MIA

Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC

Austin Johnson LAC

Alim McNeill DET

Andrew Billings CHI

T.J. Slaton GB

Devonte Wyatt GB

Benito Jones DET

Calais Campbell ATL

DeShawn Williams CAR

Jalen Carter PHI - Carter leads the league in DT pressures with 11 despite playing in a rotational role. More snaps would make him a safer play but he seems like a star in the making.

Leonard Williams NYG

Ed Oliver BUF

Osa Odighizuwa DAL

Michael Pierce BLT

Justin Madubuike BLT

Sheldon Rankins HST

Montravius Adams PIT

Logan Hall TB

Jarran Reed SEA


TIER 4 - AVOID

Jordan Davis PHI

Javon Kinlaw SF - The former 1st round pick has yet to live up to his billing but is posting promising pressure numbers despite being the 3rd man up on the DT rotation.

Shelby Harris CLV

Grover Stewart IND

Kobie Turner LA

Nathan Shepherd NO

Chauncey Golston DAL

Jonah Williams LA

Kurt Hinish HST

Larry Ogunjobi PIT

Jordon Riley NYG

Abdullah Anderson WAS

Maliek Collins HST

Armon Watts PIT

William Gholston TB

Shy Tuttle CAR

Milton Williams PHI

Derrick Nnadi KC

Kevin Givens SF

Eric Johnson IND

Bobby Brown III LA

Keeanu Benton PIT

D.J. Jones DEN

Jonathan Harris DEN

Morgan Fox LAC

Josh Tupou CIN

Lawrence Guy Sr. NE

Tershawn Wharton KC

Khalen Saunders NO

Bryan Bresee NO

John Jenkins LV

Maurice Hurst CLV

DaQuan Jones BUF

Taven Bryan IND

Earnest Brown IV LA

Da'Shawn Hand MIA

Zach Carter CIN

Mike Purcell DEN

Matt Henningsen DEN

Quinton Jefferson NYJ

Colby Wooden GB

Davon Godchaux NE

Calijah Kancey TB

Justin Jones CHI

Dean Lowry MIN

Christian Barmore NE - Barmore is my most rostered DT across all formats this year so it pains me to place him this low but mediocre grades and a snap share under 50% make it impossible for me to trust him at this point.

LaBryan Ray CAR

Keondre Coburn KC

Teair Tart TEN

Jayden Peevy TEN

Kyle Peko TEN

Malcolm Roach NO

Folorunso Fatukasi JAX

Tyler Lacy JAX

Jerry Tillery LV

D.J. Davidson NYG

Jordan Elliott CLV

Jordan Phillips BUF

Mazi Smith DAL

Neville Gallimore DAL

Levi Onwuzurike DET

Leki Fotu ARZ

Carlos Watkins ARZ

Brandon Pili MIA

Brent Urban BLT

Broderick Washington BLT

Travis Jones BLT

Hassan Ridgeway HST

DeMarvin Leal PIT

Isaiahh Loudermilk PIT

Elijah Garcia DEN

Nick Williams LAC

Al Woods NYJ

Solomon Thomas NYJ

Karl Brooks GB

Greg Gaines TB

Kentavius Street PHI

Myles Adams SEA

Mike Morris SEA

Mario Edwards Jr. SEA

Daniel Ekuale NE

Nick Thurman CAR

Jay Tufele CIN

Matt Dickerson KC

Naquan Jones TEN

Adam Gotsis JAX

Angelo Blackson JAX

Ross Blacklock JAX

Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX

Adam Butler LV

Bilal Nichols LV

A'Shawn Robinson NYG

Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG

Poona Ford BUF

Tim Settle BUF

Johnathan Hankins DAL

John Cominsky DET

John Ridgeway WAS

Larrell Murchison LA

Dante Stills ARZ

L.J. Collier ARZ

Raekwon Davis MIA

Ta'Quon Graham ATL

Albert Huggins ATL

Michael Dogbe HST

Zacch Pickens CHI

Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI

Jonathan Bullard MIN

Khyiris Tonga MIN

Scott Matlock LAC

Mike Greene TB

Marlon Tuipulotu PHI

Cameron Young SEA