DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 16 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 16 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Hopefully this article finds you in thriving in the playoffs and that these articles have helped in some small way!
I'm generally happy with the model but it can always be improved. For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all but one blip in terms of Tier 2 % over 10 pts. Accuracy against projections sits at 66.77% with a 31.71% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings equal to "Expert X" in terms of avg pts, and sit in a close second in both of % of top players identified and FantasyPros-style accuracy but ahead of FantasySharks in all three categories. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a solid correlation of .372 with performance which again exceeds the correlation between projections and performance (.010). I am likely not changing anything else in the model this season but I will continue to monitor and make slight adjustments for players dealing with/returning from injuries including downstream implications.
We have 49 viable plays this week with a very deep streaming crowd.
Good luck!
Week 16 DT Streamers (less than 3% rostered on MFL)
Week 15- Sheldon Rankins (12.75) and Quinton Jefferson (INJ), Season-long average at 13.4.
Maliek Collins, HST
Collins has been a Tier 2/3 staple in my rankings and is coming off two strong performances with another good matchup this week against a Browns team that has given up the 6th most points to DTs since week 11.
Dalvin Tomlinson, CLE
Tomlinson has put up great grades but the fantasy performances have not matched this data aside from weeks 9 and 15. The Texans are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to DTs over the past 5 weeks.
Week 16 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this late in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. We are waiting on some big returns (Simmons, Hargrave, Onyemata) and I have projected snaps as if they are playing.
Here is the full list of 127 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
KEY: RD = Ideal Run Defense Grade, PR = Ideal Pass Rush Grade, MU = Ideal Match-Up, SP = Ideal Snap Share
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Derrick Brown CAR (SS)
Quinnen Williams NYJ (RD)
Chris Jones KC (PR, SS)
Jonathan Allen WAS (SS)
Jeffery Simmons TEN (MU, SS)
Aaron Donald LA (PR, MU)
DeForest Buckner IND (PR, MU)
Justin Madubuike BLT (MU)
Christian Wilkins MIA (MU)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Denico Autry TEN (MU)
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
B.J. Hill CIN (SS)
Javon Hargrave SF (PR)
Cameron Heyward PIT
David Onyemata ATL
Leonard Williams SEA (MU)
Jarran Reed SEA (MU)
Christian Barmore NE
Fletcher Cox PHI
Calais Campbell ATL
Dexter Lawrence II NYG(RD, PR, MU)
Daron Payne WAS
Zach Allen DEN (MU)
Kenny Clark GB (MU)
Zach Sieler MIA (MU)
Maliek Collins HST (MU)
Dre'Mont Jones SEA (MU, SS)
Sheldon Rankins HST (MU)
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Harrison Phillips MIN
Devonte Wyatt GB (MU)
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Shelby Harris CLV
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Ed Oliver BUF (MU)
John Cominsky DET
Adam Butler LV
A'Shawn Robinson NYG(MU)
Javon Kinlaw SF
Bryan Bresee NO
Arik Armstead SF (PR)
Justin Jones CHI
Kobie Turner LA (MU)
T.J. Slaton GB (MU)
Andrew Billings CHI
Zach Carter CIN
Vita Vea TB
Grover Stewart IND (MU)
Calijah Kancey TB
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Jalen Carter PHI
Roy Lopez ARZ
Kevin Givens SF
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG(MU)
Armon Watts PIT
Michael Pierce BLT (MU)
Bobby Brown III LA (MU)
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA (MU)
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX (MU)
Raekwon Davis MIA (MU)
D.J. Jones DEN (MU)
Davon Godchaux NE
Mike Purcell DEN (MU)
Jerry Tillery LV
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
Bilal Nichols LV
Keeanu Benton PIT
Jordan Davis PHI
Milton Williams PHI
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Nick Thurman CAR
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Josh Tupou CIN
Nathan Shepherd NO
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Travis Jones BLT (MU)
Khalil Davis HST (MU)
D.J. Davidson NYG (MU)
Taven Bryan IND (MU)
John Jenkins LV
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Khalen Saunders NO
Chauncey Golston DAL
Morgan Fox LAC
Mazi Smith DAL
Jordan Elliott CLV
John Ridgeway WAS
Brent Urban BLT (MU)
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX (MU)
Karl Brooks GB (MU)
Dante Stills ARZ
Teair Tart HST (MU)
Tim Settle BUF (MU)
Colby Wooden GB (MU)
Matt Henningsen DEN (MU)
Austin Johnson LAC
Kurt Hinish HST (MU)
Jordan Phillips BUF (MU)
Eric Johnson IND (MU)
Zacch Pickens CHI
Isaiah Buggs DET
Neville Gallimore DAL
Montravius Adams PIT
Jonah Williams LA (MU)
Kevin Strong ARZ
Tershawn Wharton KC
Logan Hall TB
Shy Tuttle CAR
DeShawn Williams CAR
Greg Gaines TB
Benito Jones DET
William Gholston TB
Nick Williams LAC
Angelo Blackson JAX (MU)
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Keion White NE
Adam Gotsis JAX (MU)
Jonathan Harris DEN (MU)
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX (MU)
Larrell Murchison LA (MU)
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT (MU)
Jihad Ward NYG (MU)
Albert Huggins ATL
LaBryan Ray CAR
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Derrick Nnadi KC