DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 15 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 15 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Hopefully this article finds you in the playoffs looking for ways to get that ever so slight edge on your opposition. If you are still reading this despite your season being over..."You're still here? It's over. Go home." (and thanks for reading).
I'm generally happy with the model but it can always be improved. For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all but one blip in terms of Tier 2 % over 10 pts. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 30% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms avg pts, and sit in a close second in both of % of top players identified and FantasyPros-style accuracy. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a solid correlation of .477 with performance which again exceeds the correlation between projections and performance (.188). I am likely not changing anything else in the model this season but I will continue to monitor and make slight adjustments for players dealing with/returning from injuries including downstream implications.
With all byes behind us, overall DT play improving as of late (DTs outperformed DEs last week), and some snap shares settling, we have a season record 57 viable plays this week with a very deep streaming crowd.
Good luck!
Week 15 DT Streamers (less than 3% rostered on MFL)
Week 14- Grover Stewart (15.75) and D.J. Reader (5.25), Season-long average at 13.4.
Sheldon Rankins, HST
Rankins has been boom or bust this season but has a good pass rush grade and has played solid snaps of late with a slight plus matchup against the Titans.Â
Quinton Jefferson, NYJ
Jefferson has put up solid numbers 4 of the last 7 weeks and faces a Miami team that has been solid against DTs but showed some cracks last week against the Titans D-Line.
Week 15 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this late in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 135 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
KEY: RD = Ideal Run Defense Grade, PR = Ideal Pass Rush Grade, MU = Ideal Match-Up, SP = Ideal Snap Share
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Aaron Donald LA (PR, SS)
Derrick Brown CAR (MU, SS)
Quinnen Williams NYJ (RD)
Christian Wilkins MIA (SS)
Jeffery Simmons TEN (MU, SS)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG (RD, PR)
Justin Madubuike BLT
DeForest Buckner IND (SS)
Zach Sieler MIA (SS)
Cameron Heyward PIT
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Leonard Williams SEA (MU)
Kenny Clark GB (MU, SS)
Jarran Reed SEA (MU, SS)
David Onyemata ATL (MU)
Chris Jones KC (MU)
Ed Oliver BUF (MU)
Calais Campbell ATL (MU)
Jonathan Allen WAS
Javon Hargrave SF (PR)
Zach Allen DEN
Christian Barmore NE
Calijah Kancey TB
Denico Autry TEN (MU)
Daron Payne WAS (SS)
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Sheldon Rankins HST
Maliek Collins HST
Grover Stewart IND
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
John Cominsky DET
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
D.J. Reader CIN
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Vita Vea TB
Michael Pierce BLT
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
Greg Gaines TB
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Harrison Phillips MIN
John Jenkins LV
Arik Armstead SF (PR)
Kobie Turner LA
Austin Johnson LAC (MU)
Justin Jones CHI (MU)
Fletcher Cox PHI (MU)
Maurice Hurst CLV
Devonte Wyatt GB (MU)
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA (MU)
T.J. Slaton GB (MU)
Davon Godchaux NE
Shelby Harris CLV
Bryan Bresee NO
Javon Kinlaw SF
Isaiah Buggs DET
D.J. Jones DEN
Benito Jones DET
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Jordan Davis PHI (MU)
Jonah Williams LA
B.J. Hill CIN
Dante Stills ARZ (MU)
Armon Watts PIT
Dre'Mont Jones SEA (MU)
Shy Tuttle CAR (MU)
Ta'Quon Graham ATL (MU)
Keeanu Benton PIT
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Malcolm Roach NO
Jalen Carter PHI
Khalen Saunders NO
Jordan Phillips BUF
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI (MU)
Andrew Billings CHI (MU)
Milton Williams PHI (MU)
Derrick Nnadi KC
Keion White NE
Roy Lopez ARZ (MU)
D.J. Davidson NYG
Adam Butler LV
Jerry Tillery LV
Chauncey Golston DAL
Mazi Smith DAL
Raekwon Davis MIA
Travis Jones BLT
Morgan Fox LAC
Bobby Brown III LA
Kevin Givens SF
Nathan Shepherd NO
LaBryan Ray CAR (MU)
Albert Huggins ATL (MU)
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
DeShawn Williams CAR (MU)
Colby Wooden GB (MU)
Zacch Pickens CHI (MU)
Nick Thurman CAR (MU)
Kentavius Street ATL (MU)
Tim Settle BUF (MU)
Kyle Peko TEN (MU)
Tershawn Wharton KC (MU)
Karl Brooks GB (MU)
Teair Tart TEN (MU)
Adam Gotsis JAX
Kevin Strong ARZ (MU)
Eric Johnson IND
Montravius Adams PIT
Khalil Davis HST
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Bilal Nichols LV
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
Jordan Elliott CLV
Taven Bryan IND
Mike Purcell DEN
Neville Gallimore DAL
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT
Josh Tupou CIN
William Gholston TB
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Brent Urban BLT
Logan Hall TB
Nick Williams LAC
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
John Ridgeway WAS
Larrell Murchison LA
Angelo Blackson JAX
Kurt Hinish HST
Leki Fotu ARZ (MU)
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Dean Lowry MIN
Zach Carter CIN
Jonathan Harris DEN
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Jihad Ward NYG