DT Deep Dive

***2023 Week 2 Results***

Week 2 is in the books and I am continuing the tradition of evaluating myself every week against a variety of metrics (details on each metric and last season's results available here):

Week 2 was a step down from week 1 results but still pretty good. Based on the comparisons to other rankings, it seems like it was a down week across the board so we look to bounce back in week 3.

PERFORMANCE BY TIER

Tier 2 outperformed Tier 1 across all metrics in a bit of a surprise. Both top 2 tiers vastly outperformed Tiers 3 or 4 across most metrics suggesting the model is holding up well even in a bizarre week for DTs. 

ACCURACY AGAINST PROJECTIONS

Just over half (56%) of recommended plays exceeded their FantasySharks projections with 19% of these correct calls more than doubling these projections and 8% of all recommendations failing to score a point. Boom rate is a little lower than average and whiff rate was high this week but still far from the worst I've seen! 

FANTASY PROS ACCURACY

Among my comparison group, I had the highest average points in my top group and correctly identified the second most top players. I'll look to improve my accuracy score moving forward since my ordering was off. 

***2023 Week 2 Rankings***

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of the DT Deep Dive! In future weeks you'll see some season-long stats at the top of these articles but for now, I'll point you back to Week 1 for fresh analysis of last week's rankings.

Moving into Week 2, I am still proceeding with caution as I am relying on a mix of last year's data with the small sample from this season but I'm encouraged by last week's results. I am more cautiously modeling snap count effects but no major changes to the model to report. New this week I highlight potentially surprising names in Tiers 1 and 2 and provide commentary on risers and fallers in Tiers 3 and 4.

Ideal Tier is guys you would start in any format (and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT).

Solid Tier is players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group.

Solid (Deeper) Tier is mostly going to be relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches.

Avoid Tier is mostly players who did not have strong enough snap counts in Week 1 to warrant consideration in leagues other than Best Ball that you are managing in-season.

Good luck!

Week 2 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)

Week 1 - D. J. Reader (11.25) and Dalvin Tomlinson (1.75), Season-long average at 6.5.

Harrison Phillips, MIN

Phillips played an elite 88% of Vikings snaps last week with good, not great, PFF grades on his way to an 8 tackle performance. That production is likely not sustainable but he still is a solid play this week.

Justin Madubuike, BAL

Madubuike may not have the tackle upside of Phillips but he is a great pass rusher who played 74% of the Ravens snaps last week racking up a sack. An advantageous matchup against the Bengals boosts his stock this week.

Week 17 DT Rankings

Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).

Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps last week. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.

Here is the full list of 153 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.


TIER 1 - IDEAL

Aaron Donald LA

Derrick Brown CAR

Jonathan Allen WAS

Christian Wilkins MIA

Quinnen Williams NYJ

Zach Sieler MIA - Played 80% of snaps last week and posted a decent stat line in what was far from his best on-field performance.

DeForest Buckner IND


TIER 2 - SOLID

Jeffery Simmons TEN

Chris Jones KC

Harrison Phillips MIN

Daron Payne WAS

Javon Hargrave SF

Zach Allen DEN

Grover Stewart IND

Justin Madubuike BLT

Dexter Lawrence II NYG - Lawrence had a down Week 1 in terms of snaps, grades, and output and looks to bounce back in Week 2 against a Cardinals team that gave up greater than 10 fantasy points to each of the Commanders elite DT duo last week.


TIER 3 - SOLID (DEEPER LEAGUES)


B.J. Hill CIN

Ed Oliver BUF

Maliek Collins HST

Arik Armstead SF

Alim McNeill DET

Denico Autry TEN

Dalvin Tomlinson CLV

Dre'Mont Jones SEA

Jarran Reed SEA

DeShawn Williams CAR

D.J. Reader CIN

Sheldon Rankins HST

Roy Robertson-Harris JAX

Dean Lowry MIN

Justin Jones CHI

Jalen Carter PHI - Four Eagles DTs played >40% of snaps last week which is far from ideal. Still, Carter played so well that despite a snap count penalty in my model and a discount to his PFF grades, he still is already a recommended play.

Leonard Williams NYG - Not to keep picking on Giants (and promoting Eagles) but Williams had a very bad day at the office in Week 1. He has the talent and opportunity to score in Week 2 but he feels like far less of a sure thing at the moment. 

Andrew Billings CHI

Grady Jarrett ATL

Teair Tart TEN

Jonathan Harris DEN

Kenny Clark GB

Fletcher Cox PHI

Shy Tuttle CAR

Christian Barmore NE

Larry Ogunjobi PIT

Davon Godchaux NE

Benito Jones DET


TIER 4 - AVOID

Shelby Harris CLV

Nathan Shepherd NO

Vita Vea TB

David Onyemata ATL

DaQuan Jones BUF

Morgan Fox LAC

Jordan Davis PHI - Put up great numbers last week in terms of grades and fantasy points but needs less of a rotational role if he is going to be relied upon in fantasy.

Mario Edwards Jr. SEA

Milton Williams PHI

Logan Hall TB

Khyiris Tonga MIN

Michael Pierce BLT

T.J. Slaton GB

Raekwon Davis MIA

Kobie Turner LA

Keeanu Benton PIT

Chauncey Golston DAL

Jerry Tillery LV

Bilal Nichols LV

Austin Johnson LAC

D.J. Jones DEN

Devonte Wyatt GB

Osa Odighizuwa DAL

John Jenkins LV

Montravius Adams PIT

Abdullah Anderson WAS

Adam Gotsis JAX

Kevin Givens SF

Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ

L.J. Collier ARZ

Broderick Washington BLT

Travis Jones BLT

Carlos Watkins ARZ

Kevin Strong ARZ

Jordan Elliott CLV

Derrick Nnadi KC

Tershawn Wharton KC

Matt Dickerson KC

Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC - Still the 25th most rostered DT on MyFantasyLeague, Joseph-Day played just over 50% of snaps on his way to a performance rated as DT112 among qualified players on PFF. Two QB hits were promising but he is still deep in avoid land at the moment. 

Colby Wooden GB

Karl Brooks GB

Mike Morris SEA

Kentavius Street PHI

Earnest Brown IV LA

Khalen Saunders NO

Malcolm Roach NO

Greg Gaines TB

William Gholston TB

Calijah Kancey TB

DeMarvin Leal PIT

Quinton Jefferson NYJ

Al Woods NYJ

Taven Bryan IND

Hassan Ridgeway HST

Kurt Hinish HST

Folorunso Fatukasi JAX

Poona Ford BUF

Jordan Phillips BUF

Tim Settle BUF

Daniel Ekuale NE

Neville Gallimore DAL

Mazi Smith DAL

Levi Onwuzurike DET

John Cominsky DET

Mike Purcell DEN

Brent Urban BLT

Leki Fotu ARZ

Maurice Hurst CLV

Cameron Young SEA

Myles Adams SEA

Marlon Tuipulotu PHI

Brandon Pili MIA

LaBryan Ray CAR

Nick Thurman CAR

Jonah Williams LA

Larrell Murchison LA

Bobby Brown III LA

Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG

A'Shawn Robinson NYG

Jordon Riley NYG

Zach Carter CIN

Josh Tupou CIN

Jay Tufele CIN

Adam Butler LV

Bryan Bresee NO

Mike Greene TB

Isaiahh Loudermilk PIT

Byron Young LV

Solomon Thomas NYJ

John Ridgeway WAS

Ta'Quon Graham ATL

Albert Huggins ATL

Eric Johnson IND

Keondre Coburn KC

Angelo Blackson JAX

Ross Blacklock JAX

Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX

Javon Kinlaw SF

Naquan Jones TEN

Kyle Peko TEN

Lawrence Guy Sr. NE

Johnathan Hankins DAL

Jonathan Bullard MIN

Zacch Pickens CHI

Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI

Scott Matlock LAC

Nick Williams LAC

Matt Henningsen DEN

Elijah Garcia DEN