DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 14 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 14 edition of the DT Deep Dive!
I'm generally happy with the model but it can always be improved. For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 29% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified and second in terms of avg pts, and are closing in on second in FantasyPros-style accuracy after a solid Week 13. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a weak(er) correlation of .345 with performance largely due to some very unexpected names near the top of the week for points. The only slight change is I am thumbing the scale a bit if players played atypically low snap counts in week 13 by taking their last two game average.
With only two byes, overall DT play improving as of late, and some snap shares settling, we have a season record 52 viable plays this week with a very deep streaming crowd.
Good luck!
Week 14 DT Streamers (outside the top 38 rostered on MFL)
Week 13- Alim McNeil (8.75) and D.J. Reader (12.75), Season-long average at 13.6.
Grover Stewart, IND
A forgotten man coming off a multi-game suspension, Stewart has long had a solid tackle floor and good pass rush ceiling to warrant streaming consideration. The only concern is if they ease him back into play...
D.J. Reader, CIN
Reader had a serviceable Week 13 despite playing a lower snap share than usual. He also lost points to penalties by other parts of the defense and posted a season-high 6 pressures on MNF. It is always hard to predict boom games, but he is due.
Week 14 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this late in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 121 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
KEY: RD = Ideal Run Defense Grade, PR = Ideal Pass Rush Grade, MU = Ideal Match-Up, SP = Ideal Snap Share
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Derrick Brown CAR (SS)
Aaron Donald LA (PR, SS)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG (RD, PR)
Quinnen Williams NYJ (RD, MU)
DeForest Buckner IND (PR)
Christian Wilkins MIA (SS)
Chris Jones KC (SS)
Zach Allen DEN (SS)
Calais Campbell ATL
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Kenny Clark GB (MU, SS)
Javon Hargrave SF (PR, MU)
Ed Oliver BUF (SS)
David Onyemata ATL
Leonard Williams SEA
Denico Autry TEN
Zach Sieler MIA (SS)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL (MU)
D.J. Reader CIN (MU)
Cameron Heyward PIT
Grover Stewart IND
B.J. Hill CIN (MU)
Jalen Carter PHI (PR)
Jarran Reed SEA
Larry Ogunjobi PIT (SS)
Justin Madubuike BLT
Christian Barmore NE
Sheldon Rankins HST (MU)
Calijah Kancey TB (MU)
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Vita Vea TB (MU)
Maliek Collins HST (MU)
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Keion White NE (SS)
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX (MU)
Benito Jones DET
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Jonah Williams LA
Harrison Phillips MIN
Fletcher Cox PHI
Bilal Nichols LV
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Davon Godchaux NE
Nathan Shepherd NO (MU)
Justin Jones CHI
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Kentavius Street ATL
D.J. Jones DEN
Kobie Turner LA
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Michael Pierce BLT
John Jenkins LV
Arik Armstead SF (PR, MU)
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Khalen Saunders NO (MU)
Quinton Jefferson NYJ (MU)
Maurice Hurst CLV
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Jordan Davis PHI
Milton Williams PHI
Andrew Billings CHI
Teair Tart TEN
Devonte Wyatt GB (MU)
T.J. Slaton GB (MU)
Javon Kinlaw SF (MU)
Keeanu Benton PIT
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Mike Purcell DEN
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Bobby Brown III LA
Jerry Tillery LV
Adam Butler LV
Malcolm Roach NO (MU)
Karl Brooks GB (MU)
Chauncey Golston DAL (MU)
Mazi Smith DAL (MU)
Kevin Givens SF (MU)
Armon Watts PIT
D.J. Davidson NYG
Morgan Fox LAC
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Shelby Harris CLV
Travis Jones BLT
Jihad Ward NYG
Austin Johnson LAC
William Gholston TB (MU)
Greg Gaines TB (MU)
Logan Hall TB (MU)
Derrick Nnadi KC
Bryan Bresee NO (MU)
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX (MU)
Solomon Thomas NYJ (MU)
Colby Wooden GB (MU)
Khalil Davis HST (MU)
Neville Gallimore DAL (MU)
Johnathan Hankins DAL (MU)
John Cominsky DET
Tim Settle BUF
Jordan Phillips BUF
Montravius Adams PIT
Taven Bryan IND
Eric Johnson IND
Nick Williams LAC
Jordan Elliott CLV
Zacch Pickens CHI
Tershawn Wharton KC
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT
Kyle Peko TEN
DeShawn Williams CAR
Nick Thurman CAR
Shy Tuttle CAR
Raekwon Davis MIA
Kurt Hinish HST (MU)
Angelo Blackson JAX (MU)
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX (MU)
Adam Gotsis JAX (MU)
Zach Carter CIN (MU)
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
Jonathan Harris DEN
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Dean Lowry MIN
LaBryan Ray CAR