DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 12 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 12 edition of the DT Deep Dive and Happy Early Thanksgiving!
I'm generally happy with the model but it could be better (more on that below). For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 29% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified and second in terms of avg pts, but are a close third in FantasyPros-style accuracy after a great Week 11. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a season-high correlation of .569 with performance so I am not changing a thing!
Week 12 features 47 recommended plays and another 80 sorted in the avoid tier.
Good luck!
Week 12 DT Streamers (outside the top 38 rostered on MFL)
Week 11- Kobie Turner (11) and Keannu Benton (10.5), Season-long average at 14.35.
Alim McNeil, DET
I'll be honest, you should probably fade me here. Every single time I recommend McNeil, he has a bad game but all metrics point to McNeil as not only a streamer but and Ideal play this week so here he is!
Dante Stills, ARI
Stills is having a sneaky strong fantasy run as of late with games of 28.9, 14.75, and 22 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 outings. If Ledbetter plays, probably look elsewhere (DJ Reader is still widely available and has a + matchup) but Stills played 82% of snaps last week as the primary DT.
Week 12 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 127 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG
Aaron Donald LA
Quinnen Williams NYJ
David Onyemata ATL
Alim McNeill DET
Zach Allen DEN
Christian Wilkins MIA
Chris Jones KC
Derrick Brown CAR
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
DeForest Buckner IND
Javon Hargrave SF
Arik Armstead SF
Jeffery Simmons TEN
Jonathan Allen WAS
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Kenny Clark GB
Christian Barmore NE
Zach Sieler MIA
Vita Vea TB
Leonard Williams SEA
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Dante Stills ARZ
D.J. Reader CIN
Jarran Reed SEA
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Fletcher Cox PHI
Justin Madubuike BLT
Daron Payne WAS
Logan Hall TB
Jalen Carter PHI
Calais Campbell ATL
Cameron Heyward PIT
Benito Jones DET
Harrison Phillips MIN
Sheldon Rankins HST
Roy Lopez ARZ
John Jenkins LV
B.J. Hill CIN
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Jihad Ward NYG
D.J. Jones DEN
Denico Autry TEN
Nathan Shepherd NO
Keeanu Benton PIT
Michael Pierce BLT
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Ed Oliver BUF
Calijah Kancey TB
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Maliek Collins HST
Devonte Wyatt GB
Kobie Turner LA
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
Adam Butler LV
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Justin Jones CHI
Malcolm Roach NO
Davon Godchaux NE
Maurice Hurst CLV
Derrick Nnadi KC
Chauncey Golston DAL
Milton Williams PHI
Teair Tart TEN
Kyle Peko TEN
Mike Purcell DEN
Javon Kinlaw SF
Shelby Harris CLV
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Bilal Nichols LV
Jonah Williams LA
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Neville Gallimore DAL
Mazi Smith DAL
Andrew Billings CHI
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Khalen Saunders NO
Taven Bryan IND
Armon Watts PIT
Karl Brooks GB
Bobby Brown III LA
Kevin Givens SF
Morgan Fox LAC
Jordan Davis PHI
Travis Jones BLT
Jerry Tillery LV
Austin Johnson LAC
Zacch Pickens CHI
William Gholston TB
Khalil Davis HST
John Ridgeway WAS
Greg Gaines TB
Jordan Phillips BUF
Kurt Hinish HST
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Bryan Bresee NO
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Colby Wooden GB
Mike Greene TB
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
T.J. Slaton GB
John Cominsky DET
Kevin Strong ARZ
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Nick Williams LAC
Shy Tuttle CAR
Jordan Elliott CLV
DeShawn Williams CAR
Tim Settle BUF
Broderick Washington BLT
Eric Johnson II IND
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Keion White NE
Jonathan Harris DEN
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Dean Lowry MIN
Tershawn Wharton KC
Angelo Blackson JAX
Raekwon Davis MIA
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Adam Gotsis JAX
Leki Fotu ARZ
Nick Thurman CAR
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
LaBryan Ray CAR
Zach Carter CIN