Rookie Rankings
NOTE - If you are just here for the most recent rankings, they are located at the bottom of the page.
Default Settings and Methodology - Updated 5/3/23
Settings
I have always thought that IDP writers should lay out their settings before posting rankings. Granted within-position rankings are useful regardless of number of positions used or scoring system but as soon as you try to evaluate LB3 against S1 or WR12, clarity is crucial. In the rankings you will find I am assuming:
1) A healthy number of balanced starters (i.e. 11OP/11IDP)
2) TE Premium (but this is a very small effect)
3) True Positions (i.e. 3-4 OLBs and 4-3 DEs are all EDGEs and get a DE designation)
4) 12-16 teams (12, 14, or 16 teams magnitude on IDP but not order or effects, below 12 will require some strategic tweaks)
5) I do not assume anything about QBs since they are so league size and setting dependent. If you are in most 1QB leagues and need a QB, you can likely get one a few spots lower than where I have them. If you are in a SF league (or very large 1 QB league) you will likely have to pay up a few.
Based on data from the 2022 State of IDP Survey, I am posting 3 versions of my rankings based on some factors that do move the needle.
1) NPLB Rankings. This assumes 5 positions (DT/DE/LB/CB/S) are used and that IDP scoring is adjusted by position to make all more relevant (i.e. a tackle by a DT is worth more pts than a tackle by an LB).
2) Flat-Scoring 5-Position Rankings. The move from NPLB to any Flat scoring system (IDP123, Big 3, most 'standard' league settings) introduces a shift in value between positions.
3) Flat-Scoring 3-Position Rankings. This is mostly for my friends on Sleeper. The move from 5 positions to condense IDP to DL/LB/DB changes the relative value of positions and so I adjust accordingly. NOTE: I did not look up sleeper positional designations but guys who have dual designations will be a little more valuable than I reflect.
Methodology - Updated 5/3/23
I've always been curious how rankers come to their evaluations. I understand the hesitancy to give up the secret sauce but, as an academic, I am an advocate of transparency so (without boring you with formulas) here are the criteria used in my rankings and a brief note as to why they are included in the final model. Note: I am still in the process of collecting data to empirically validate my model but initial results are good.
Starting Point: Consensus Scout Evaluation. I do not watch tape or analyze college stats, I let the professionals do this for me. I take the consensus of dozens of analysts and scouts compiled by Arif Hasan at PFN. I scale these evaluations using a 0-100 system based on the talent distribution of that year identified by ScoutsInc. I also supplemented the list this year to include players on the PFF Big Board which expanded my (non-OL) talent pool from 242 last year to 325 this year (players drafted but not ranked will be added post-draft and given the default evaluation of 30 used at the end of Scouts distribution).
Modifier (+5% to -5%): Team Fit. This is admittedly a subjective metric but I use post-draft depth charts to determine the likelihood that the player will see the field in Year 1. Contract/age/performance of starter is a secondary factor. Early playing time is crucial for NFL and fantasy success.
Modifier (+5.9% to -3%): Draft Capital. Earlier NFL draft picks tend to get more chances at playing time and snap counts are the top predictor of fantasy performance (at least for IDP). The values are based on historical success rates within different parts of the draft such that there are 6 tiers.
Modifier (+4% to -4%): Fantasy relevant data. Again there is some subjectivity here but I look for one key data point by position and add or subtract value based on this (i.e. tacking grade for LBs or route running metrics for TEs). I cross reference multiple draft guides to arrive at these evaluations.
Additional Modifiers (Vary): Actual Positional Value, Perceived Positional Value, IDP Discount, Trade Up. If I only used the 4 criteria above, you would be drafting CB1 from a class near the top of your draft. To try and make my rankings more practically useable I make a fantasy VORP-style adjustment, an adjustment based on historical data on combined drafts, an up to 1% modifier if a team traded up to get the player within rounds 1-3, and a conservative blanket (negative) IDP adjustment. Note: the only variable to change in my three sets of rankings is "actual positional value".
Summer Update - 8/4/23
The 2022 rookie rankings (and all previous unpublished iterations) were relatively static. This year, I published a set of pre-NFL Draft rankings (for those of you who draft before the NFL Draft), a significant update on them post-draft, and now a small summer update. Changes:
-Small updates where I adjust Team Fit and Fantasy Relevant Data values to reflect changes that effect these areas
-Increased IDP blanket value penalty based on 2023 rookie fantasy draft data
-Increased perceived positional value of RBs based on 2023 rookie fantasy draft data
NOTE: I am also collecting some data to map my accuracy in one, two, and three year rolling windows. Initial results from 2022 rankings can be found here.
2023 Combined Rookie Draft Rankings
For ease of use, I have retained these in a multi-tab GoogleSheet so that you can copy and edit for your own personal use. The most recent version is provided below. Pre-draft are available here and initial post draft can be found here. Good luck and happy drafting!
