DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 10 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 10 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Byes take out some big and up and coming names but make room for some fresh faces among this week's 41 recommended plays.
I'm generally happy with the model but it could be better (more on that below). For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 65% with a 31% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified and second in terms of avg pts, and are slowly making up ground for FantasyPros-style accuracy. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the weakest correlations even among the most stable variables suggesting a pretty random week. Hopefully, we are back to a little more predictability in Week 10.
Week 10 features 41 recommended plays with some new names moving up the board and a return of one of the best.Â
Good luck!
Week 10 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)
Week 9- David Onyemata (38.95) and Arik Armstead (7.25), Season-long average at 15.0.
Arik Armstead, SF
Armstead was a streamer for me a few weeks ago and put up 32.3 fantasy points! I doubt he will repeat that performance but good pass rush metrics, a great snap share, and a favorable matchup for DTs land him back on the list.
D.J. Reader, CIN
While his fantasy output has been disappointing in 2023 and his snap share is down slightly from 2022, Reader's on-field performance has been steadily improving and he faces a DT-friendly opponent in Houston in a REVENGE GAME!!!
Week 10 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 116 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG
David Onyemata ATL
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Jeffery Simmons TEN
Quinnen Williams NYJ
Zach Allen DEN
Derrick Brown CAR
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Javon Hargrave SF
Vita Vea TB
Arik Armstead SF
Christian Barmore NE
DeForest Buckner IND
Jonathan Allen WAS
D.J. Reader CIN
Alim McNeill DET
B.J. Hill CIN
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Maliek Collins HST
Justin Madubuike BLT
Calijah Kancey TB
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
DeMarcus Walker CHI
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
Denico Autry TEN
Justin Jones CHI
Michael Pierce BLT
Cameron Heyward PIT
Daron Payne WAS
Jarran Reed SEA
Ed Oliver BUF
Harrison Phillips MIN
T.J. Slaton GB
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
Leonard Williams SEA
Larry Ogunjobi PIT
Davon Godchaux NE
Kentavius Street ATL
Nathan Shepherd NO
Calais Campbell ATL
Keeanu Benton PIT
TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)
Maurice Hurst CLV
Andrew Billings CHI
John Jenkins LV
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Devonte Wyatt GB
Javon Kinlaw SF
Khalen Saunders NO
Chauncey Golston DAL
Jerry Tillery LV
Shy Tuttle CAR
Khalil Davis HST
Dante Stills ARZ
Jordan Phillips BUF
John Cominsky DET
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Travis Jones BLT
Kevin Givens SF
Malcolm Roach NO
Bryan Bresee NO
Adam Butler LV
Teair Tart TEN
Morgan Fox LAC
Nick Williams LAC
Armon Watts PIT
Shelby Harris CLV
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
Taven Bryan IND
Kevin Strong ARZ
Zacch Pickens CHI
Broderick Washington BLT
Zach Carter CIN
Benito Jones DET
Neville Gallimore DAL
Bilal Nichols LV
Kyle Peko TEN
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
DeShawn Williams CAR
Sheldon Rankins HST
Kurt Hinish HST
Montravius Adams PIT
Keion White NE
Roy Lopez ARZ
Jordan Elliott CLV
D.J. Jones DEN
Mike Purcell DEN
Tim Settle BUF
Eric Johnson IND
Colby Wooden GB
Kenny Clark GB
Karl Brooks GB
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
William Gholston TB
Greg Gaines TB
Logan Hall TB
Mike Greene TB
LaBryan Ray CAR
Ta'Quon Graham ATL
Leki Fotu ARZ
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Dean Lowry MIN
Nick Thurman CAR
Austin Johnson LAC
Scott Matlock LAC
DeMarvin Leal PIT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Al Woods NYJ
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Jonathan Harris DEN
John Ridgeway WAS
Adam Gotsis JAX
Angelo Blackson JAX
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX